The long primary season is
over. Tens of millions of Americans voted. Nobody has been elected to office
yet, but there is much to learn from those votes.
Primaries don’t show which
party will win in November, although they offer hints. They do tell us what
each party represents, what kind of government Democrats and Republicans offer.
Maybe they show where American politics are headed.
Many new names will appear on
November ballots, because incumbency’s power was frequently defeated by
non-politicians. Women and minorities, under-represented in politics since the
founding of the US, won an unprecedented number of primaries.
In both parties, moderate and
more extreme elements clashed. Among Republicans, Donald Trump often helped to
tip the scales toward the extreme
candidates. Kris Kobach in Kansas and Ron DeSantis in Florida both won
primaries for governor due to Trump’s intervention.
Among Democrats, no person of
that weight could put a finger on the scales. Instead organizations, some old
and some new, mostly on the more liberal side, used traditional tactics on the
ground to push activist candidates ahead of experienced incumbents.
The extraordinary female
energy behind the Women’s March on Washington the day after Trump’s inauguration translated into record numbers
of women candidates in 2018. Many more women ran for Senate and House seats,
with the increase all
among Democrats, and more women won their primaries than ever before. Sixteen
women will be major party candidates in governors’ races in November, 12
Democrats and 4 Republicans. The previous high was 10.
In Illinois, there are record numbers
of women candidates in November, from statewide offices to Congressional
seats to the Illinois legislature. The great majority are Democrats.
In New York City, first-timer
Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez defeated 10-term House incumbent Joseph Crowley. That victory
generated much comment, because she belongs to the Democratic Socialists of America.
Three
black Democrats won primaries in governors’ races: Stacey Abrams in
Georgia, Ben Jealous in Maryland, and Andrew Gillum in Florida. Jealous and
Gillum could be the first black governors in their states, and Abrams is the
first black woman ever nominated in any governor’s race. African Americans won
many less prestigious primaries, including these firsts
for black women: London Breed for mayor of San Francisco; Deidre DeJear for
Iowa Secretary of State; Vangie Williams for Congress in Virginia.
Ayanna
Pressley, a black Boston city councilor, handily defeated Democratic
10-term incumbent Mike Capuano. She will probably become Massachusetts’ first
black Congresswoman. Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat, will become the first Muslim
woman in Congress, since she is unopposed in Michigan’s 13th congressional
district. Sharice Davids in Kansas and Deb Haaland in New Mexico, both
Democrats, could be the first Native American women elected to Congress.
The 7th
Congressional district in Texas is an example of the forces
in play across the country. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, a lawyer and
first-time candidate, won a crowded Democratic primary. She has worked to
support Planned Parenthood in Houston and has been involved in social justice
organizations. She faces incumbent John Culberson, a Republican who has won 9
elections in this district since 2000. He voted to repeal the Affordable Care
Act and has taken a hard line on immigration. The district is nearly one-third
Hispanic. The result will depend on voter registration drives and how well Fletcher
can introduce herself to her district.
The power of incumbency shows
up in an ongoing NYTimes poll in the district. Culbertson leads slightly as I
write this, even though nearly two-thirds support a federal ban on the sale of
assault-style guns, and a majority opposes a border wall and disapproves of
Trump.
Primaries in New York State
reveal the strength and limits of activist liberalism among Democrats. Governor
Andrew Cuomo easily defeated actress Cynthia Nixon, who criticized him from the
left. But insurgent
candidates for the state legislature defeated a group of conservative
Democratic incumbents, who had been voting with Republicans. The successful
challengers represent the diverse
Democrats who have won this year: two white women, one Latina woman, one
Asian-American man, and two black men defeated five men and one woman.
The unprecedented success of
female and minority candidates among Democrats comes from efforts to turn out
voters who were absent in 2016. More than 4 million voters for Barack Obama in
2012 did
not vote in 2016. More than half are Americans of color. Many millions more
never registered: about 30%
of potential voters are perennially not registered. After a majority of
primaries had been held in late July, turnout compared to 2014 had nearly doubled
among Democratic voters and increased about 25% among Republicans.
In November, Republicans
offer mostly white male candidates, who support a white male attitude toward
political policy. Trump disdains the popular movement against sexual abuse, his
administration has backed away from efforts to fight lingering racism, and his
political supporters say little about his obvious prejudice against Hispanics.
Democrats look different and
support active policies to empower women and minorities. They argue that
policies which address race and gender will also attack deepening class
inequalities.
Which way will America go?
Steve Hochstadt
Springbrook WI
Published in the Jacksonville
Journal-Courier, September 18, 2018
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