It looks like we will never
find out what the vote in Iowa really was. New York Times reporters found
arithmetical errors in the sets of numbers set to the Iowa Democratic
headquarters from over 200 precincts. But the lawyer for the Iowa Democratic Party says
that the original vote tally sheets cannot be changed by law. In any case, it would be impossible now to fix the
errors – the caucuses have long dispersed and there is nobody who could be sure
how to correct them.
In this peculiar situation,
where the results were so close between Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, the
Associated Press declined to call a winner.
We could say, so what? The
general results are clear: Bernie and Pete came out on top, with a significant
lead over Elizabeth Warren, then further behind Joe Biden, and even further Amy
Klobuchar. It is notable that many of the TV reports since then list only the
top 4 candidates. Klobuchar’s Iowa race is being widely erased.
One aspect of the results is
clear, even if the numbers may be inexact. Sanders won many more votes than
anyone else. The caucus voting is a two-step process, because votes for candidates who do not reach 15% in a precinct get
redistributed among the candidates who reached that threshold. Sanders received
24.7% of the first votes, against Buttigieg 21.3%, a difference of over 6000 votes.
After the first redistribution, the difference had been narrowed: Sanders
26.5%, Buttigieg 25.1%. Most of the votes which had to be redistributed had
been given to moderate candidates, like Yang and Steyer, and thus were more
likely to go to Buttigieg than to Sanders or Warren.
When these votes were
translated in over 1700 precincts into delegates, or as the Iowans have it,
state delegate equivalents (SDE), which then get turned into delegates, Sanders
and Buttigieg were essentially tied.
It’s easiest to see these
shifts in a table:
first
vote second vote delegate equivalents delegates
Sanders 24.7 26.5 26.1 12
Buttigieg 21.3 25.1 26.2 14
Warren 18.5 20.2 18.0 8
Biden 14.9 13.7 15.8 6
Klobuchar 12.7 12.2 12.3 1
Why did Sanders’ obvious lead in votes get turned into
second place in delegates?
Delegates are apportioned automatically to each
county, and rural counties are favored in that apportionment. Steve Kornacki of NBC pointed out that in rural Shelby County, which went
to Buttigieg, every 53 voters got one state delegate equivalent, while in
Poweshiek County, home to Grinnell College, where young voters lean toward
Sanders , it took 126 votes to get one SDE.
That is a normal feature of Iowa’s political
structure. In 2016, in the big
university and college precincts, it took over 200 votes to get a delegate,
while in rural Fremont County, 45 voters got an equivalent. The smallest
counties got the most delegates per person. Although Hillary Clinton was
recorded as the winner in Iowa, it is likely that Bernie Sanders got more
votes, but nobody knows for sure, because only the SDE’s were tabulated before
this year.
Sanders was not the only one who was disadvantaged by
this system. Comparing the numbers for the second vote and the SDE’s, Elizabeth
Warren lost a couple of percent and Biden gained. She had run a relatively
close third place with a big lead over Biden, but in the SDE’s, which is all
that most media reported, she is a more distant third and Biden is close to
her.
Many commentators, especially those who support the
more progressive candidates Sanders and Warren, have noted that Iowa and new
Hampshire are among the whitest states in America, and they have an outsized
influence on the Democratic primary. They are also among the most rural states, and then Iowa’s system gives even more power to rural voters, who
tend to be moderate.
That is part of the American political system. The
Senate is the most obvious case of rural bias, where the smallest and most
rural states get equal representation with the big urban states, like New York
and California. That translates into rural bias in the Electoral College, which
is why both Bush and Trump won the Presidency, while losing the popular vote.
In one scary calculation, it would be possible for
Trump to lose by 5 million votes to a Democrat, but by very narrowly winning states
like Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin, he could win in the
Electoral College. Add to this legal, constitutional bias the illegal bias
that Republicans have introduced by gerrymandering both Congressional districts
and state legislative districts.
It is not possible to create a perfect electoral
system, which gives the proper weight to each subgroup of the population: rural
vs. urban, black vs. white, conservative vs. moderate vs. progressive. As soon
as such a perfect system were created, population movement would throw it out
of whack. But America could have a much better system of translating votes into
power. The most obvious change would be to get rid of the Electoral College,
which has been proposed many times. In 1969, after George Wallace had received
46 electoral votes, Emanuel Celler of New York proposed abolishing the Electoral College
in favor of a purely popular vote. That passed the House 339-70, and President
Nixon said he supported it. The Senate Judiciary Committee passed the bill to
the full Senate by a vote of 11 to 6. But the bill was filibustered by a few
Democrats and Republicans, and although it had majority support, there was not
a two-thirds majority needed to end the filibuster.
So any candidate whose support lies with more
progressive urban voters is at a significant disadvantage. A progressive
Democrat could beat Trump handily and still lose.
Steve Hochstadt
Jacksonville IL
February 11, 2020
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