Instead of focusing on what
has happened, the “news” media these days are filled with repetitive
speculations about what might happen. Vast sums are being spent on polls to
predict the outcome of an election 14 months from now, for which we don’t yet
know the candidates. So I might as well join the crystal ball brigade.
The most recent surveys show
Trump losing by
large margins to all of the 4 most likely Democrats. Against Joe Biden,
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, Trump got a steady 39%.
That is close to his current national approval rating around 42%,
and lately his popular reputation has been inching downwards. But the most
striking aspect of popular opinion about Trump is that it has not changed much
since May 2017, a few months after he took office. His approval has not gone
beyond 42% and disapproval has not fallen below 52%, the steadiest ratings
among presidents going back to World War II. Something extraordinarily good for
Trump would have to happen to change his notable negative popularity.
If those numbers are
translated into voting in November 2020, Trump would lose the popular vote by
more than 10%. That would qualify
as a landslide. Since 1960, only Nixon over McGovern in 1972 (23%
difference), LBJ over Goldwater in 1964 (23%), and Reagan over Mondale in 1984
(18%) had larger margins of victory. Unless Trump does something to expand his
approval among voters, he appears to be headed for a catastrophic defeat in
November 2020. Nothing he has done since his campaign officially began shows
promise of gaining converts. He’s not likely to increase his popularity by
accusing most American Jews of being disloyal to Israel and to themselves, or
trying to buy Greenland. It is hard to imagine that anyone approves of his
recent unpredictable policy swings on gun
control and trade
issues. If anything, he appears to be less able than ever to be serious
about governing.
Unpredictable forces beyond
any politician’s control might upend any predictions about the election. Economists are currently
divided about whether the US is headed for a recession in 2020. A declining
economy would remove the only “accomplishment” Trump can point to in nearly 3
years as President, although his signature tax cut apparently had little
effect. The tariffs to which he is wedded will continue to do damage to
consumers and producers. Economic processes and political decisions in Germany,
China, England and across the globe will affect the American economy.
If Trump’s numbers don’t
improve by the spring of 2020, the electoral calculations of Republican
politicians across the country, especially in competitive districts, will
change. Not challenging Trump could mean defeat. While breaking from Trump
might also spell doom, some Republicans will shift from their silence
on his outrages to cautious criticism. Meanwhile, Trump will become more
frightened of losing, because of the threat
of legal jeopardy if he is not President. His desperate campaign will shift
further into vituperation, threats and mendaciousness. Any defections from
full-throated support will be met with even more hysterical attacks. The
Republican Party could tear itself apart.
I think Donald Trump is a
lying pervert and a cheating fraud. He is one of the world’s most unpleasant
public figures and a disaster for America. So there is an element of wishful
thinking here, intermingled with my political calculations. Yet every day there
seems to be a surprise which might affect the outcome in 2020.
I don’t believe that
defeating Trump, even by a large margin, will make America great again. The
many thousands of screaming partisans who show up for his rallies will still be
around, seeking candidates who nod toward white supremacy. The racism that
Trump exploited and amplified will not disappear with his defeat. Amoral
internet trolls will continue to collaborate with Russia to poison unsuspecting
minds with right-wing nightmares. The Republican Party won’t suddenly give up
their electoral playbook of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and immigrant
bashing.
I think the glimmer of hope
is this: Trump did lasting damage to our future American lives, but he also
motivated millions of Americans, especially
young ones, to pay more attention to how politics affects their lives.
How this all plays out is
unpredictable, but not beyond our influence. To take back our lives, we have to
join the movement to take back the country.
Steve Hochstadt
Springbrook WI
August 27, 2019
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