Donald Trump appears ready to
declare a national emergency at our southern border. The only emergency there
is the danger that no wall will be built, despite Trump’s promises to his
supporters for the past 3 years that he would build a “beautiful wall”. Trump
is elevating a personal political problem into a national crisis.
But a much greater potential
national emergency looms in our future: the possibility that Trump and the
Republican Party will do damage to our democracy out of fear of the 2020
election.
One of the most frightening
developments in American politics has been the increasing disdain of
significant portions of the Republican Party for basic democratic norms. An
early highlight of Republican disregard for our normal democratic process was
their refusal
to consider President Obama’s appointment of Merrick Garland to the
Supreme Court in March 2016. While Mitch McConnell is often linked personally
with this unprecedented action, all 11 Republicans on the Judiciary Committee
said they would ignore any Obama nominee. Then after the election, Republicans eliminated
the filibuster for Supreme Court justices in 2017, enabling them to
push through Trump’s nomination of Neil Gorsuch.
The longer history of extreme
partisan gerrymandering of state and federal election districts in
Republican-dominated states after the 2010 census created disproportionate
legislative majorities. In 2012, Democratic candidates for the House won 1.4
million more votes than Republicans, but Republicans took the House
234 to 201.
At the same time, the
Republican Party embarked on a nationwide effort to rig
elections by disenfranchising voters more likely to vote for
Democrats: minorities and the poor. Republican state legislatures have employed
demands for special kinds of ID, restrictions on absentee and early voting,
purging of voter rolls, and inadequate staffing of certain voting places to
target typically Democratic voting groups.
These two sets of
anti-democratic strategies created Republican-dominated state legislatures,
even where they received fewer votes than Democrats, as in
North Carolina. In 2016, Republicans began to use these majorities
to invalidate the results of election losses. After Democrat Roy Cooper won
election as North Carolina’s Governor in 2016, Republicans in the state
legislature convened a special session to transfer
many of his powers to themselves. For example, the number of
appointments that Cooper was allowed to make was cut from 1500 to 400.
After the 2018 midterms,
Republicans in the Wisconsin and Michigan legislatures stripped powers from
newly elected Democratic governors. The Wisconsin state legislative races were
so blatantly gerrymandered by Republicans that federal judges had overturned
them, but they were still in place for the 2018 elections. In December, the Republican
legislature voted to limit Governor-elect Tony Evers’ appointments,
to restrict early voting, and to restrict the power of Josh Kaul, the Democrat
elected as attorney general, and outgoing Governor Scott Walker signed the
bills. In both the Wisconsin Senate and House, only
one Republican legislator voted against these laws.
Based on one of the most
extreme gerrymanders in the country, Michigan’s legislature is
dominated by Republicans, although the Democrats
won more votes in 2014 and 2018. After losing all the statewide
races in 2018, Republicans voted to limit the powers of the new Governor and
Attorney General, and to redefine elements of the non-partisan citizens’
commission to oversee future redistricting, that had just been passed by over
60% of Michigan voters. The Promote the Vote ballot initiative
allowing voter registration up to Election Day, that had passed
67% to 33%, was altered to add ID requirements. Again nearly all
Republican legislators voted for these bills.
The Republican Party has
transformed itself into a political force that prioritizes its own power over
the sanctity of electoral democracy. The authoritarian tendencies of Trump as
President added to this rampant Republican electoral cheating threaten to
create a national crisis. Trump has consistently disparaged the results of
elections, even his own victory in 2016. He appointed an experienced vote
suppressor, Kris Kobach, to oversee a futile federal effort to prove electoral
fraud. Trump uses presidential power to promote his personal interests. He
employed our armed forces on our southern border as a political stunt. Although
the shutdown that Trump gladly took credit for, until he started blaming the
Democrats, is rejected by a majority of voters, Republican legislators have
remained behind him. Now he is considering using the President’s emergency
powers, when our elected Congress thwarts his will.
The election of 2020 presents
a critical dilemma for Trump. It may not be possible to indict a sitting
president for the campaign finance violations for which Trump is currently an
unindicted co-conspirator. If Trump wins in 2020, the statute
of limitations of five years for such federal offenses will run out
while he is in office. But if he loses, he may face prison time. The many
other investigations of his political and business activities that
have already begun or will be initiated by the Democratic House will add to his
judicial peril. 2020 qualifies as a personal emergency for Trump.
Would Trump’s core supporters
accept a coup? Many evangelical leaders and voters believe Trump to be the modern
incarnation of King Cyrus of Persia, a nonbeliever chosen by God to
accomplish the goals of the faithful. Some of Trump’s most prominent
evangelical supporters openly long for a “king” to rule America.
A criminal President, who will
do anything to serve his ego and self-interest, threatened with jail. A party
willing to fix elections and ignore electoral results that don’t go their way.
Cheerleaders on the most popular media network who ignore inconvenient news. A howling
base of supporters that believes Trump’s opponents are traitors who belong in
jail.
All the elements are in place
for a presidential coup against our constitutional democracy. Paul
Krugman just wrote about a possible reaction to looming defeat in 2020: “if
you aren’t scared about how a cornered Trump might lash out, you haven’t been
paying attention.” It will be too late in November 2020 to prevent a national
emergency. We must pay attention now.
Steve Hochstadt
Bloomington, IN
January 15, 2019
No comments:
Post a Comment