Now that Donald Trump’s
campaign for President looks likely to win him the Republican nomination,
outraged writers both left and right are screaming bloody murder. The screams
sound different, though. Liberals worry that Trump is a fascist,
with comparisons to Mussolini
and Hitler.
Establishment Republicans denounce him as an insincere
conservative and worry that he’ll lead them to crushing
defeat in November. Only late-night comedians appear to be enjoying the spectacle.
Trump loves all the
attention. He deliberately provokes the screams and then screams back. Much
more important than listening to his wailing is to ask why he has so many
followers. Why are millions of Americans so angry that they look to Trump for
leadership?
The comparisons of Trumpism
to fascism often invoke the history of Germany before Hitler came to power. But that comparison doesn’t
work well. Hitler and the Nazis were a fringe party as late as 1928. That year
they won 2.6% of the vote and were the ninth
largest party. Only after the crash of the Western world’s economy in 1929
did their votes jump
to 18.3% in 1930, as unemployment
surged to 23%, on its way to over 40% by 1932.
Nothing like that is
happening in the US. We see signs of economic distress in America every day,
however unemployment has fallen
to 4.9%, after peaking
at 10% just after Barack Obama took office. But even if the economy may be
improving, that is barely noticeable to most people. The proportion of
Americans who have “good jobs”,
meaning more than 30 hours per week with a steady paycheck, has barely inched
up from about 42% five years ago to 44% now. Wages have stagnated for 20 years.
Since 2009, despite the
recovery, the percentage of Americans who think economic conditions are “getting
worse” has remained over 50%, reaching 56%
in the most recent Gallup poll. Republicans are overwhelmingly pessimistic
about our future: in January, 88%
of Republicans, but only 27% of Democrats told CNN/ORC that things in the
country today are going badly.
I don’t think the anger that
propels people to Trump is all about the
economy. The greatest unemployment and the dimmest economic prospects for
the future plague young African
Americans: their unemployment reached nearly 50% in late 2009 and 2010, and
still hovers around 25%. Overall,
black unemployment is twice white unemployment, and Hispanic unemployment is
50% higher than whites.
But this month Hispanics told
pollsters how much they
disliked Trump: 77% said they had an unfavorable opinion of him. None of
the other candidates, Republican or Democrat, had higher than 30%. Another poll
was worse: over 70% of Hispanics had a “very
unfavorable” view of Trump. Even 60% of Hispanics who are Republicans have
an unfavorable opinion, three times as high as the other Republican candidates.
African
Americans dislike Trump even more.
A poll from July 2015, when
many Republicans were still in the race, showed Trump’s appeal to be greatest
among whites
without a college degree. That advantage grew
by the end of 2015. Americans without a college degree are much more likely to
have negative
ideas about immigration in general and undocumented immigrants in
particular.
A February Public Policy poll
in South Carolina, before the primary, identifies which Republican voters like
Trump best: those who support banning Muslims and homosexuals from entering
the US; who support shutting down mosques in the US and making Islam illegal; who
support flying the Confederate flag; who think whites are a superior race.
One of Trump’s biggest
attractions is his disdain for what he calls political correctness. His
supporters recognize that their beliefs in white superiority, the evils of
Islam and homosexuality, and the importance of ending immigration are no longer
acceptably announced in polite society. What once was politically fine is now
incorrect, liable to be criticized. Trump says these things in the crudest way
and ironically makes them more respectable. His voters’ idea of a great America
may mean a place where they have better jobs, but it also means an America
where Christian
whites regain their ascendancy, where the world respects our dominance,
where traditional hierarchies return.
Trump voters don’t travel in
the same circles as establishment Republicans. Powerful
Republicans say they don’t know any Trump voters. Surveys in January show
that Republican voters consider Trump the most anti-establishment candidate.
Trump the birther gave birth
to Trump the candidate. Outrageous racist attacks on a black President provided
a base of support: two-thirds
of Trump supporters still believe that Obama is a Muslim born outside of the
US. Trump exploits the anger about a changing America and stokes it. He
repeatedly has encouraged
violence against those who protest his message. His white supporters have
been waiting for their deliverance. They will be even angrier if he loses or if
he wins and can’t turn the clock back.
Steve Hochstadt
Jacksonville IL
Published in the Jacksonville
Journal-Courier, March 15, 2106
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