I have two one-year-old
grandchildren. They are happy and healthy, learning to talk and feed themselves
and make their desires known to the adults who control their world. I am lucky,
but it wasn’t just luck. Their parents were thoughtful about changing their
lifestyles to give the babies the best possible chances at healthy lives – less
alcohol, less caffeine, heathy diets, paying attention to doctors’ advice. Good
luck and good care.
In 2050, Vera and Leo will be
32. They may just be starting their own families. They might become great
parents, but what if the world is collapsing around them?
By that time, unless we make
great changes, the earth will be hotter. Where I live in central
Illinois, summer temperatures will be 6 degrees warmer than in 2000, and 4
degrees warmer in winter. After 2050, the Central Plains states may suffer from
droughts
much worse and much longer than the 1930s Dust Bowl. Each year, Chicago will
have a month of days
when the heat index reaches 105 degrees, compared to four days in 2000. Peoria
and St. Louis are among the 25 cities that have warmed
up the fastest in recent decades.
Each region in the US will
face different
combinations of severe hazards due to the warming climate. The greatest
hazard on our coasts will be rising sea levels. More and more powerful storms
will especially threaten Florida. Some cities in Texas will see the heat index
rise over 105 degrees for more
than half the year. Droughts in the Southwest and in Indiana, insufficient
rainfall in much of the Midwest, but heavier precipitation from Maine to
Alabama represent the most significant dangers. Each region will suffer several
simultaneous severe climate hazards by 2050.
Climate hazards translate
into human
suffering. Heat waves cause increased heart and respiratory problems.
Drought leads to more intense wildfires. Floods cause contamination of water
supply, and thus spread of water-borne diseases. Pregnant women exposed to
increased smoke from fires or contaminated water give birth to less healthy
children.
Heat waves, floods, fires,
droughts and storms also damage agricultural land. Warming oceans harm
fisheries. In California, the source of over a third of the country’s
vegetables and two-thirds of our fruits and nuts, the severity of summer drought will
triple by 2050.
Wealth can protect some humans
from the immediate effects of climate hazards. More expensive food, the need to
purify water, increased medical attention, even moving away from
storm-threatened coasts, dried out forests, or hot cities present little
problem for those with extensive personal resources. Economic inequality within
the US and across the world will translate even more forcefully into unequal
life chances. The infrastructures of poorer countries in Asia, Africa and Latin
America are much weaker, meaning that severe climate events have much greater
impact. The World Bank predicts that more than 140
million people will be displaced in developing regions of the world by
2050, mostly in Africa. In wealthier countries whose populations will not
suffer as much directly, heightened pressure will result from increased
immigration, more expensive raw materials, and more violent conflicts.
Our planet is now nearly 2
degrees warmer than in the early 20th century. The economic effects
thus far have been staggering: the number of extreme weather events that cost
over $1 billion in economic losses has quadrupled since the 1980s. Continued
burning of fossil fuels, contributing to warming and air pollution, will cost
the US economy $360
billion a year in the 2020s.
My life will barely be
affected by climate change. By the time the accumulated results of human
activity create disastrous effects in America, I will probably be in a nursing
home. But Vera and Leo will not be so lucky. Wherever they live, the climate
will be unfriendlier, the infrastructure will be overburdened, the costs of
coping with severe hazards will be higher, and the economic inequalities will
be deadlier. The future for them and their children will be bleaker. People
will be angry.
I am angry now. Angry at the professional
liars who have claimed for years that nothing was happening. Angry at the politicians
who pretend to believe them. Angry at the corporations who care only about this
year’s bottom line.
I’m angry at the
self-proclaimed Christians who say they are pro-life, but put the lives of all
future generations in danger by denying
climate change; who quote the Bible at every turn, but ignore those
passages they violate every day: “You
shall not defile the land in which you live.”
I am angry at those who want
responsibility, but are irresponsible, who not only do nothing to preserve the
earth for the future, but do everything to further
pollute our planet.
We have already gone past the
point of no return. More carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere from burning
fossil fuels in
2018 than ever before. Glaciers are melting, seas are rising, storms are
getting stronger. It will take more than recycling, more than a few electric
cars and wind turbines, more than the kind of minimal
lifestyle changes recommended by trendy columnists.
In order to prevent climate
catastrophes by 2050, the nations of the world must cut fossil fuel use in half
within the next 15 years and nearly eliminate
their use by 2050. That means no more gasoline engines, no more heating
homes with oil, complete restructuring of manufacturing plants. No more
throwaway economies.
We have to change our
lifestyles now. That will be uncomfortable, even scary. Do we care about our
grandchildren enough to do that?
Steve Hochstadt
Berlin
February 26, 2019