Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Seeing Our Environment

Two sets of opinions about our environment, the earth which makes our lives possible, are at war in our country. The scientific set is alarmed about the mounting effects of human activity on air, water, animal and plant life, and climate. As population and consumption grow, and industrial methods of doing everything proliferate, the earth has become unable to absorb the multiplying impact on its interlocking natural systems. The pollution of our water supplies, the increasing ferocity of storms, the warming of climate, the rising level of oceans, and the dying of species are already negatively affecting people around the globe. Projections of these trends into the near future predict severe problems for billions of people.

The ignorant set of opinions dismisses all evidence with stupid arguments. “The earth’s climate was much warmer long ago.” Yes, it was, before agriculture, before human life emerged, before millions of people lived on the edge of the oceans. “There is no scientific consensus.” Just a lie about the small number of isolated cranks who put forward specious contentions based on made-up evidence. “Computer models are unreliable.” You don’t need a computer to read a thermometer or see how the projections from 10 years ago have already come true. “The end times are coming, so don’t worry about climate change.” Religious dogma trumps science again.

Ignorant and stupid may be understatements. The political forces which have argued against doing anything to reduce our impact on the environment, and which now actively reverse previous efforts to protect the earth, deliberately lie about what has already happened. Republicans in Congress and the White House know that temperatures are rising. But they prioritize their own ideological short-term gains over the long-term prospects for our children and grandchildren. Their rich donors believe that their money can protect them against the disasters that will eventually befall the less wealthy, who have always borne the brunt of human-caused environmental disasters. The ignorant, stupid, dishonest set of opinions has been backed by billions of ideological dollars for decades.

Against the torrent of influence-buying, the willingness of ideologues like the Heartland Institute to twist the truth, and the self-interest of venal politicians, the honesty and empathy of someone like Greta Thunberg, the Swedish teenager who just sailed across the Atlantic to urge Americans toward bold action against climate change, stands little chance of success. It appears that no amount of evidence, neither scientific articles nor photographs of melting glaciers, can affect the deliberately ignorant.

The so-called age gap in climate consciousness might appear to be a hopeful sign for the future. A Gallup poll last year found that 70% of 18- to 34-year olds worry about global warming, but only 63% of 35- to 54-year olds, and 55% of people 55 and older. Nearly half of older Americans put themselves into the ignorant camp, not believing that most scientists agree that global warming is occurring, that global warming is caused by human activities, and that the effects of global warming have already begun. Maybe the key is that only 29% of older Americans think global warming will pose a serious threat in their lifetime. As Louis XV is supposed to have said, “Après moi le déluge.”

Politics has an even stronger effect on beliefs about climate than age. The most ignorant Americans are older Republicans, less than half of whom believe global warming is occurring, and less than one-third of whom believe that most scientists agree about global warming.

But young people are also not that worried. Only half believe that global warming will pose a serious threat in their lifetimes, which extend well past 2050, the nightmare date by which climate across the globe will be unrecognizable.

Opposition to efforts to ameliorate climate change comes not only from conservative politicians. A couple in Missouri who wanted to install solar panels on their roof had to fight for years with local politicians and neighbors who didn’t like the look. In some classic cases of “not in my backyard”, people in the most liberal places refuse to accept minor lifestyle changes. An attempt to construct a wind farm off the shores of Nantucket Island near Cape Cod resulted in years of controversy, litigation, documentaries, books, and polls, and was eventually shelved. The most significant argument against the tall turbines 15 miles offshore from Nantucket was that they would spoil the view. A 2013 law in Massachusetts that would have indexed the tax on gasoline to inflation was repealed by popular vote the next year.

Although my family believes I am a Luddite because of my reluctance to embrace cell phones, I blame their use for some of our environmental problems. I am constantly amazed when I walk around on a sunny day and most of the people I see are staring fixedly down at a tiny screen. A flock of ducks flies overhead, trees wave in the breeze, clouds march across the sky, but they earn not even a glance. The younger generations are turning away from the natural world in favor of virtual unreality. They may be watching videos of Greenland’s ice pack melting, but they miss what is happening to their own environment.

There is much discussion of the physical dangers of using smart phones while walking. I am more concerned about the intellectual danger of ignoring the physical environment during the short periods when most people are outside.

Some scientists are worried about the “human costs of alienation from the natural world”, which has been labeled “nature deficit disorder”. Biologists identify “plant blindness” as one symptom, “the inability to see or notice the plants in one’s own environment”. As our society has moved off the land into cities and suburbs, we have distanced ourselves from the natural world. Now the lure of rapidly changing images and instant communication distracts too many people from the slow degradation of the earth on which we stand.

The pace of environmental change is much faster than ever before, but slow in terms of human life span. It is difficult to convince anyone to accept something now that they don’t like in order to prevent a catastrophe decades away.

Looking down at our phones, we won’t see the cliff ahead.

Steve Hochstadt
Springbrook WI
September 3, 2019

Thanks to my cousins, Roger Tobin and Saul Tobin.

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

It Might Go This Way


Instead of focusing on what has happened, the “news” media these days are filled with repetitive speculations about what might happen. Vast sums are being spent on polls to predict the outcome of an election 14 months from now, for which we don’t yet know the candidates. So I might as well join the crystal ball brigade.

The most recent surveys show Trump losing by large margins to all of the 4 most likely Democrats. Against Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, Trump got a steady 39%. That is close to his current national approval rating around 42%, and lately his popular reputation has been inching downwards. But the most striking aspect of popular opinion about Trump is that it has not changed much since May 2017, a few months after he took office. His approval has not gone beyond 42% and disapproval has not fallen below 52%, the steadiest ratings among presidents going back to World War II. Something extraordinarily good for Trump would have to happen to change his notable negative popularity.

If those numbers are translated into voting in November 2020, Trump would lose the popular vote by more than 10%. That would qualify as a landslide. Since 1960, only Nixon over McGovern in 1972 (23% difference), LBJ over Goldwater in 1964 (23%), and Reagan over Mondale in 1984 (18%) had larger margins of victory. Unless Trump does something to expand his approval among voters, he appears to be headed for a catastrophic defeat in November 2020. Nothing he has done since his campaign officially began shows promise of gaining converts. He’s not likely to increase his popularity by accusing most American Jews of being disloyal to Israel and to themselves, or trying to buy Greenland. It is hard to imagine that anyone approves of his recent unpredictable policy swings on gun control and trade issues. If anything, he appears to be less able than ever to be serious about governing.

Unpredictable forces beyond any politician’s control might upend any predictions about the election. Economists are currently divided about whether the US is headed for a recession in 2020. A declining economy would remove the only “accomplishment” Trump can point to in nearly 3 years as President, although his signature tax cut apparently had little effect. The tariffs to which he is wedded will continue to do damage to consumers and producers. Economic processes and political decisions in Germany, China, England and across the globe will affect the American economy.

If Trump’s numbers don’t improve by the spring of 2020, the electoral calculations of Republican politicians across the country, especially in competitive districts, will change. Not challenging Trump could mean defeat. While breaking from Trump might also spell doom, some Republicans will shift from their silence on his outrages to cautious criticism. Meanwhile, Trump will become more frightened of losing, because of the threat of legal jeopardy if he is not President. His desperate campaign will shift further into vituperation, threats and mendaciousness. Any defections from full-throated support will be met with even more hysterical attacks. The Republican Party could tear itself apart.

I think Donald Trump is a lying pervert and a cheating fraud. He is one of the world’s most unpleasant public figures and a disaster for America. So there is an element of wishful thinking here, intermingled with my political calculations. Yet every day there seems to be a surprise which might affect the outcome in 2020.

I don’t believe that defeating Trump, even by a large margin, will make America great again. The many thousands of screaming partisans who show up for his rallies will still be around, seeking candidates who nod toward white supremacy. The racism that Trump exploited and amplified will not disappear with his defeat. Amoral internet trolls will continue to collaborate with Russia to poison unsuspecting minds with right-wing nightmares. The Republican Party won’t suddenly give up their electoral playbook of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and immigrant bashing.

I think the glimmer of hope is this: Trump did lasting damage to our future American lives, but he also motivated millions of Americans, especially young ones, to pay more attention to how politics affects their lives.

How this all plays out is unpredictable, but not beyond our influence. To take back our lives, we have to join the movement to take back the country.

Steve Hochstadt
Springbrook WI
August 27, 2019

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Open Letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren


The following message was sent to Sen. Warren’s office and to her campaign, and has been published at LAProgressive and History News Network.

Open Letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren
August 6, 2019


Dear Senator Warren,

Congratulations on your campaign thus far and on your performance during the two sets of televised debates. You have done a fine job of presenting yourself and your ideas for America.

But I don’t think the Democratic debates have been successful so far. The apparent need for each candidate to distinguish themselves from the rest and the relentless efforts of the media, including the debate organizers and hosts, to dig out points of difference and conflict have resulted in a set of seemingly contradictory messages about what Democrats stand for and how you all differ from the much more unified message of Trump and the Republicans.

I have believed for some time that the way for any Democrat to beat Trump is for all Democrats to emphasize what unifies you, or us. I wrote about that idea in May, but the message apparently did not have any effect:
So I am trying a different tack: asking you to take the lead in helping the whole field of candidates be clearer about what all Democrats propose to the American people, each in their own way and with their own emphases.

I ask you to formulate a statement of Democratic principles and policies that every candidate could accept in a public way, preferably as part of the next debate. That statement should address the underlying agreement among all Democrats on issues that separate us from the Trump candidacy: the intention to address climate change rather than call it a hoax; to raise taxes on the rich, not the rest of us; to fund education, child care and infrastructure more vigorously; to move forward from Obamacare, not destroy it. Imagine the impact on the voting public if every candidate on the stage said the same few words about their support for what surveys show that the majority of the public wants.

Success in this effort does not depend on getting unanimous agreement. If someone wants to say, “I don’t support those ideas,” let them. That will further emphasize the unified stance of the rest. Success would be taking control of the debate and the whole effort to get rid of Trump.

I ask you to do this because of your status as a leading candidate, your willingness to take the lead in formulating what being a Democrat means, and your fearlessness in articulating your campaign message. Taking this lead may not help you personally to jump over the other Democrats, but it could help all Democrats gather the votes of the majority of Americans who disapprove of Trump. I don’t see how such an effort could harm your campaign among Democratic voters.

I understand that your own policy proposals would not get approval from all the candidates, or perhaps even from most. That is exactly what is confusing to the average American voter. You would have to formulate a statement that falls short of the plans that you have outlined. I support your candidacy because of those particular plans. But more important, I believe that the majority of Americans support the general foundation of Democratic ideas and ideals that inform you and the other candidates.

The media, from FOX to MSNBC, from the NY Times to the local papers that most Americans read, will not draw the obvious and important contrasts between what Republicans have done and tried to do and what Democrats would do if Trump is defeated. They will keep talking about a horse race, goading you all to attack each other, and emphasizing the smallest differences over the larger consensus.

Thank you for your service thus far to all Americans.

Steve Hochstadt
Springbrook WI